Timing is Everything

21 Mar

Our experience in asset management over the years has shown us, if nothing else, that the most recent market action sows the seeds of the next most likely counter trend. Thus, the “great moderation” led to something much more chaotic in the aftermath, permanently rising home prices led to an environment which virtually guaranteed prices would no longer maintain their stair step rise, and ever rising commodity prices led to unsustainable new production efforts which are now being written off. My point is that markets, built on human nature, assume that tomorrow will look much like today, when in reality the inverse tends to be more the norm. What implicit market assumptions are being priced into todays economic DNA.  1) Global rates will stay low as long as Central Banks are committed to such 2) Inflation is not a problem for the foreseeable future 3) Liquidity is abundant, particularly in public capital markets. 4) Global liquidity is not only central bank driven but central bank channeled. The challenge is to try and ascertain when these “truths” have simply become self-fulfilling prophecies, because  violent inflection points typically accompany such sudden realizations.

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