Bond Market: Handle with care

21 Jun

Back in November, we discussed the Nassim Talib concept of anti-fragile as it related to the U.S. Treasury Market. We described a Treasury Market which has been manipulated, shaped and coddled by the Federal Reserve and thus been rendered more unstable. Well, the action over the last several weeks provides us with fresh evidence of this instability. The comments that the Chairman made, post  FOMC meeting, seemed to smack of micro-management as he described a situation whereby the Fed would either add to, or subtract from, its current asset purchase plan depending on whether its target variables are being met or exceeded. We all know that conventional monetary policy works with a definitive lag, we were however surprised to hear that this highly unconventional monetary policy has an almost immediate feedback loop. We don’t wish to belabor a point, but this latest round of bond market upheaval, in our opinion, is directly related to a diminished lack of credibility afforded by the Bond Market to the Central Bank. The process of micromanaging the Treasury curve to ensure stability has finally reached its apex, and the most recent instability  in the market is the byproduct. In our opinion, this instability in rates should  begin to translate into a severe dislocation in the dollar as well.

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