Groundhog Day

23 May

I can’t help but feel like Bill Murray in the movie Groundhog Day, whereby it appears that every day in the Capital Markets is a repeat of the day prior. Forget the new normal, or the great moderation, we are now in the midst of the Groundhog Day Market. In this nirvana, Stocks rally, bonds rally or at least stay range bound, commodities sell off and volatility across the board stays stubbornly low. Investors in this new era, would appear, like Bill Murray, to be in some kind of twilight zone where it’s not “no news is good news”, its there is no new news. Every day the background noise is the same: “Stocks are the place to be given where rates are”,” The Fed will not raise rates until…”,” Inflation is dead”,” De-flation is the greatest risk”. This world would indeed be nirvana if not for the faulty premise that underlies all of this complacency; namely that Central Bankers have it (whatever it may ultimately be) under control. What concerns us is not the occurrence of some black swan event, but rather the high level of disjointedness which will occur given the significant mis-allocation of capital across all global Capital Markets.Major dislocations in markets usually do not stem from one single “event”, but rather from the collective group -think that believes that all events are simply one-off in nature and thus can be controlled. Market dislocations occur when the macro suddenly overwhelms the micro, thus rendering simple solutions (Central Bank action) relatively ineffective. Don’t mistake sameness for safety, Buy Stuff.

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