Conflicted Thinking

The sanctions imposed by the Russian Government in response to the sanctions imposed on them by the EU and others, is a prime example of the new level of risk management that must be performed in this ever changing geo-political dynamic. This point was exemplified by an article on Bloomberg about the growing interest in farmland investment in the Czech Republic. The article discusses the relative value of Czech farmland but also points out that the Russians are the number one importer of Czech farm products. This article comes out at the same time we are hearing complaints all across Europe with regards to the cessation of exports involving: Milk, Cheese, olives, etc.. This segues with our earlier blog which had stated that the days of treating smooth cross border trade as a given, are essentially over. Long term investment analysis will now mandate that the export markets of certain productive assets (like Czech Farmland) must be given closer scrutiny. Such scrutiny will inevitably lead to the balkanization of certain markets as investment dollars become more scarce. Ultimately, in our opinion. this will lead to significantly higher prices across a select number of critical commodities.