Gullibles Travels

30 Nov

If pets.com was the poster child for the irrational and exuberant naivety of the late 90’s early 2000’s, then most assuredly Bitcoin would fit the bill for this most recent period of gullibility. I just read a piece on a new crypto-currency which involves a bitcoin backed by gold, nowhere in this article did it explain the advantages of this creation over simply owning gold. This gullibility is not however simply relegated to the crypto space, we see it in a number of other areas as well: Deficits don’t matter: Well, you can put this one in the column of things that don’t matter until they do. In a world where Global Central Banks  have monetized deficits as far as the eye can see, this may be true, however there is a point quickly approaching where math and physics  will take hold, particularly when we are talking about a tax cut Central Banks have permanently dampened volatility: While they may have lowered the risk free rate of return, the flip side of that is a massive mis-allocation of capital which has manifested itself in an environment of return free risk  This time its different: Industries are only sustainable to the extent that they can turn a profit and lengthy credit cycles do not negate this fact. Multiple resurrections across a number of industries would suggest that the reach for yield has blinded investors to this reality.

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