Stop Making Sense

Was struck by the comments of a large quant group when complaining that his stock selection factors were no longer working,  leading to recent sub-par performance. “Join the club”  is probably the refrain from almost every corner of the investing world. We have been pondering the question of correlation and causation lately and I think I’ve come to the conclusion that in a post QE world, we are finally seeing the detritus of years of capital mis-allocation. Bitcoin is not an anomaly in this environment, but rather is indicative of the kind of excesses that masquerade as technological “breakthroughs”.  As we have talked about previously, (admittedly to excess)  governmental overreach, under the guise of targeted Central Bank Policy,  has skewed and permanently altered economic relationships in a very profound way. These disconnects are too numerous to list: inflation/unemployment, low and even negative rates/economic growth, Treasury rates/deficit spend. One has to begin to wonder whether the resultant mis-allocation of resources has permanently unmoored reality from its own fundamental underpinnings, and if so is this new reality to be taken as the norm; Modern Monetary Theory is one perfect example of such skewed perspective.

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