I Pledge Allegiance…

The polarization of global capital flows and global trade, a phenomenon unseen in the past 30 years,  threatens to upset traditional mores about strict capital allocation and portfolio construction. As capital controls become more commonplace, a situation readily encouraged by the “race to debase”, the incentive to place ones wealth outside the battle lines becomes more pronounced. The question becomes: what asset or asset classes exist a safe distance from this war zone? We believe that the answer to that question will not be so obvious and that relying on historical precedents will not prove much help, however in a general sense those asset or asset classes that are not derived from some current or future sovereign promise to pay most likely is a starting point. As you know we have long been advocates of hard assets as a way to avoid “battle fatigue”, but as I just mentioned, the way forward should not be navigated with an eye towards the past.