Open For “Business”

With a good number of states loosening their SIP orders, financial markets have definitely weighed in on what will await them: Pent Up Demand. While we concur that the sudden release from an imposed lockdown will incite the need for dining out (albeit at a distance) and some form of retail therapy in whatever form is allowed. What we have a problem with is that Wall Street has not fully taken into account the fact that the absolute carnage caused by the sudden and total cessation of global economic activity has yet to even really be felt yet. As folks tiptoe back into the workplace (to the extent that they have a job) and to this new life as we know it, it will become apparent that the fallout from this pandemic has yet to unfold. I just read a statistic that the job losses in March and April  alone  were equivalent to all the job losses experienced through all the recessions in this country combined since 1960. screenshot_1590516116327If this is not stress-inducing enough, look at the SP500 banking index which is struggling to put in a bottom since the “April Lows”.  Clearly the banking sector is anticipating that there will be some credit losses associated with this event. One can recall that in the early parts of 2008, the consensus was that the concerns in residential real estate would be minimal and relegated to one small part of the mortgage market; a notion which was wrung out of investors psyches over the ensuing three years. It seems to us that things will be different for the global economy as it tries to regain its footing, post lockdown. We find it non-sensical to believe that what we return to will be relatively unscathed by the events of the last 3 months, particularly given the tenuous state of the global economy heading into 2020.

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