Price Point

A decade is a long time for a teachable moment, but maybe we only “get it” during times of pandemic, the “it” being the one primary truth that price, and price only, matters. While this may not seem revolutionary, particularly for us who espouse the philosophy of the contrarian always willing to buy or sell consensus if that consensus is not consistent with the true fundamental picture. Of course the true fundamental picture is open to interpretation and perhaps that is where our lesson begins, the true fundamental picture is dictated by price action and not the other way around. Over the last ten year period (some might argue longer, but we are only choosing to focus on the last decade) price action has created its own fundamental reality. George Soros has termed this process reflextivity, in short an environment where price creates its own set of divergent fundamentals. The reflexive nature of markets over the past decade has progressed to such an extent that it has become wholly ingrained in investors psyches. What we are describing is not simply momentum investing but rather an alternate reality driven solely by the movement in price. While this action is clearly seen in individual sectors and names (Tesla comes to mind) , it is seen in the action of the market as a whole; as evidenced by the recent divergence between public capital markets and the broader underlying economy. Explanations for the increase in reflexivity are many but we maintain that monetary policy focused almost solely on smoothly functioning capital markets lie as the primary culprit. For the time being, let price and reflexivity rule; that is until the alternate reality converges with real world consequences.